The cause for speculation with regard to Amazon stems from their acquisition of Yap, a voice to text company whose specialty is transcribing voicemail.  While Amazon wasn’t mentioned by name in the acquisition, the company that Yap merged with lists its headquarters at an Amazon building.  There are a few reasons to make a move like this, of course, but it is fairly clear that the idea of copying Apple’s efforts was not one of them.

The most important thing to keep in mind is that Yap is absolutely nothing like Siri.  Yes they both involve accurately pulling information out of the spoken word, but that is as far as it goes.  Siri is an attempt at artificial intelligence that will try to understand user intent by pulling key words and phrases out of what it hears.  Yap’s specialty is simply putting words on “paper”, so to speak, in a cheap and fast manner.  Cloud computing is Amazon’s new big thing, of course, so the fact that Yap does its work mechanically on the cloud servers also fits in well with their philosophy.

What this could be a precursor to is an Kindle Fire type of smartphone.  While Amazon has not yet announced any official plans to add such a device to their growing selection of hardware, it’s a possibility.  The Yap software would be helpful for both its original voicemail applications as well as for voice commands, in this case.  The voice command idea in general would likely go over well on future Kindle Tablets, but since the only mic we’ve seen in a Kindle has been the disabled one inside every Kindle 3 it might actually be a bit surprising.   There is also the chance that this was simply a matter of acquiring Intellectual Property to guard against lawsuits and license to other companies.

Quite possibly my favorite potential use for this would be on demand transcription of audio files.  This would come in handy for practically anybody who regularly needs to deal with presentations or meetings, especially in business environments that require fast turnaround on their reference material.  That might be a long shot, though.

Regardless of how Amazon decides to actually make use of the Yap acquisition, there’s just no chance it will be as a Siri clone.  The Kindle Fire is great at what it does, but it lacks the hardware to make a Siri possible.  Even if that hardware were present, the speech to text component of such a feature would be only a small part of a huge endeavor.  It would be great to have that kind of capability, but it’s overoptimistic for the foreseeable future.

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There have been numerous reports of airport security causing Kindle screen failure in the past and it continues to be an issue.  Amazon denies that the usual sort of security scanners employed in airports have any chance of harming their eReaders.  Even leaving aside my own personal anecdotes involving extensive holiday travel having failed to do anything to a Kindle, they’re obviously correct.  The radiation being used in these scanners is simply far too weak to manage to do any real harm to E INK displays, even over the course of repeated scane.

Where it gets tricky is in the associated mechanisms.  Naturally, to speed up the processing, belts are employed to feed baggage through scanners.  We’ve all seen or used them from time to time.  These long rubber belts, constantly in motion, have the potential to build up a significant charge.  Some estimates have indicated it could easily reach or exceed 100 volts.  In instances where this discharges through a Kindle, of course it is going to freeze the E INK permanently in place.  Of course, that sort of thing isn’t particularly good for just about any piece of electronics.

While it seems unlikely that this phenomenon alone is sufficient to account for all of the reports of travel damage, keep in mind that it is travel damage.  Tight bags, rough handling, and not infrequent jostling in crowds and tightly packed planes inevitably takes its toll.  Given that the Kindle line makes use of display technology that is notoriously brittle, it is to be expected to some extent.

In order to ensure safety for your favorite Kindle, especially the eReader models since the Kindle Fire has proven extremely resilient, there are a few things you can do.  The simplest is packing carefully.  Make sure that your Kindle is in a good protective case or at least not in a position to be supporting any weight or accepting any major pressure.  This won’t be particularly helpful if you are one of the rare cases of airport scanner damage, but for general hits it makes all the difference.

If you are particularly concerned about the scanner, keep in mind that the damage likely to be the result of static discharge.  They make cheap protective products for help with that.  Many people employ antistatic bags to protect data storage devices in transit and they should work just as well for the Kindle.

The overwhelming majority of the time, you have nothing to be worried about.  What people remember are the rare exceptions and that tends to make for some rumors being blown out of proportion.  Fortunately, even if you should end up with problems all reports indicate that Amazon has an unofficial policy of replacing airport-damaged eReaders.  Enjoy your travel, bring your Kindle, and good luck with your travel this holiday season.

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There is some contention at the moment about exactly which Kindle Fire followup we can expect to see next.  Some are certain that it will end up being a 10.1″ direct competitor for the iPad while a newer contingent citing supposedly inside information from the production chain has started indicating somewhere around 9″ as the next step.  Regardless of where you would place your bet, one frequent point of speculation is the potential for a Kindle Phone.

There has been speculation before that Amazon was interested in entering into cellular devices, but until recently that seemed doomed to be nothing but a rumor.  This past week, though, Citigroup analyst Mark Mahoney noted that certain checks they have done indicate that development for an Amazon Phone is already underway with delivery expected in 4th quarter 2012.

To be honest, it is hard to know what to expect moving forward.  While this seems to be fairly detailed information, it feels like there is little in it for Amazon in the end.  The tablet makes sense since Amazon is able to completely control the data end of things and sell at near cost, undercutting the competition.  In a cellular market closely controlled by carriers, there might well be less room for such tactics.  When consumers are already used to getting hardware for less than half of its suggested retail cost, budget options aren’t as shocking.

What I could definitely envision, however, is a Kindle Fire-like device with a smaller screen and optional 3G coverage along the lines of what is available for the iPad.  It would work marketed as an iPod Touch competitor but still have the hardware necessary to function as a communication device should the desire arise.  Even without the 3G, relying on WiFi availability, such a thing would make a big splash at the right price.

As much as it might be a difficult thing to enter into the smartphone marketplace at this time, would Amazon be willing to pass up a chance to grab hold of what is only going to continue to be an expanding market?  The Kindle Fire has demonstrated for them the potential of Android devices and the fact that they already have an Android fork fully developed and customized to fully integrate into their sales systems means that much of the work is already done.  Maybe it’s just optimism, but I think the Kindle Phone is definitely on its way.

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There are a few things that stand in the way of making this work.  The most important of these is government intervention.  Marc Onetto, Senior VP of Amazon’s Worldwide Operations, is said to have been in active negotiations with Chinese officials over how this would work.  While no word has been released by Amazon about where they stand at the moment, the Chinese Government has a tendency to take an active part in censoring information that could make things complicated. It is already often problematic to obtain rights to sell digital content globally even without this sort of oversight, but Amazon clearly has plans.

China has proven to be one of the, if not the, fastest growing market for Amazon in the past year, with revenue up over 80 percent.  They have already got ten distribution hubs set up and warehouse space adding up to about a third of what their Unites States enterprises boast.  All that despite only recently rebranding the site from “Joyo Amazon”, inherited from the company Amazon bought to gain traction in the first place, to Amazon.cn.

Chances are good that these numbers will continue going up for some time, especially if Kindles do start shipping.  There is no word just yet on whether Amazon will be creating relationships with local retailers or just selling the devices online, but either way enthusiasm for the product is likely to be high.

If they get this up and running along when seems to be the intended schedule, this would be the first Asian country to have their own localized Kindle and Kindle Content. It seems inevitable that it would be a somewhat crippled version of the Kindle Store, though.  If nothing else, China’s censorship policies would make it difficult to truly enable the Kindle Direct Publishing platform that gives Amazon a unique edge over the competition in other markets.  On top of this, Onetto did say that they had no intention of forming any sort of connection to existing content providers in this market, indicating that there is going to be some problem with stocking the electronic shelves, so to speak.  How they will get around these difficulties is anybody’s guess.

If the Kindle gets government approval, it is likely to make a big splash.  There is a lot of demand out there for such a product. Don’t expect to be seeing something like the Kindle Fire any time soon, but now that the Kindle 4 and Kindle Touch have opened the door to localized interfaces this will be a big step moving forward.

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Up until now we have been assuming that the next one to come would be the previously rumored device known by the code name “Hollywood”.  This was to be the 10.1″ version of the Kindle Fire that would run a quad core processor and have an increase in both storage and memory.  Many analysts have been expecting to see this device released as early as the first quarter of next year, but new information from DigiTimes seems to point to a slightly different course for the immediate future.

They have heard from sources associated with Amazon’s current 7″ display suppliers that Amazon has set things in motion for the production of 8.9″ screens.  While it is always important to remain somewhat skeptical of supposed inside sources for a variety of reasons, if true this could mean that entirely new things are in the works for Amazon’s next Tablet PC.

While it would not necessarily be true that an 8.9″ display would have to be less powerful than the Kindle Hollywood rumors were indicating, there has to be a reason for such a shift.  The obvious answer would be cost management.  While the Kindle Fire is currently selling ridiculously well in pre-orders, it is only able to do that by virtue of its low price and comparatively high level of content.  Should Amazon have jumped into the tablet market with something trying to take on Apple’s iPad on equal terms, it is likely that things would be going somewhat less well.

By using a screen that is somewhere between the iPad and the Kindle Fire, Amazon not only keeps costs down below what Apple has been able to manage, but also continues to remain distinct in customers’ minds.  Yes they are both tablets, but by virtue of form alone they will fill different needs and desires just as the Kindle eReader line was able to do.

This doesn’t rule out the possibility of a 10″ Kindle somewhere down the line, but should the rumor prove true then it would be far less likely.  The Kindle DX‘s lack of success should be enough to steer Amazon clear of the “bigger is better” mindset, if nothing else.  In addition, while there are currently a wide number of Kindle eReaders to choose from, there is every reason to believe that Amazon will be eliminating the Kindle Keyboard as a major part of the product line within the next few months.  Just as it makes little sense to try to keep providing five or more different eReader options at a time, trying to market 3-4 different sizes of tablet seems unlikely to significantly increase sales.

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Japanese publishers have shown themselves to be very hesitant to allow Amazon to acquire content, citing concerns about the online retail giant’s increasing level of control and influence in anglophile markets.  This, in addition to Amazon’s habitual price cuts led to them to question whether there was money to be made in Kindle Store content.

After Sony’s recent successful entry with the Reader PRS-650 at the beginning of this year, though, there has been reason to hope these companies are coming around. If nothing else, there is definite pressure from consumers who are quickly growing increasingly familiar with the potential of eBooks and eReaders and want to be able to take advantage of them.The solution to the publisher impasse seems to have taken the form of building a predefined framework for the timing and rate of discounts.  Publishers will, according to reports, be consulted before any such discounts were put in place.

Should Amazon manage to carve out a place for the Kindle in the Japanese eBook market, it could be a huge move.  Right now this space has been comparatively underexploited for a variety of reasons.  To make it work, however, they’ll need to do more than just set up a Kindle Store.

The first step will be getting the entire newest generation of Kindle eReaders out there.  The Kindle 4 and Kindle Touch, due to their virtual keyboards, both provide the ability to display Japanese characters in every part of the eReader’s function.  Just one advantage of doing away with the physical keyboard, I suppose.  Without the Kindle Touch, however, competing with even the Sony PRS-T1 would be difficult no matter the price of the Kindle 4.  Right now Amazon.uk is offering the Kindle 4 and the Kindle Keyboard without the touchscreen model, but that won’t do much good in an area where the English keyboard is less useful. These need to be available not just online but in retailers as well.  Exposure will be vital, and partnerships will need to be formed.

While the Kindle Fire is currently only available for pre-order in the US, it would make a great deal of sense for Amazon to push Japan as the first other market to get access to it.  Unfortunately, given that this would require a lot of effort to grab distribution rights in a wide variety of media forms it seems like a long shot.  An effort by Amazon to acquire these rights and expand its influence seems to be inevitable, but it won’t come quickly or easily and a half-hearted attempt would do more harm than good.

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Still, and I say this with nothing but regret, there is next to no chance that we will be getting a true Kindle Color any time soon.  Sure the Kindle Tablet will have the ability to read, but only in the same way that the Nook Color or your average smartphone can technically be an eReader if the user so desires.  Until screen technology advances a bit further, nobody is likely to want to gamble on a good color reading display.

The problem right now is the tradeoffs.  To make a Kindle Color worthwhile, Amazon would need to have a vibrant color display that didn’t detract from the existing touted benefits of the Kindle’s display.  That means you can’t have a back-light, high battery draw, or less than crisp text.  Nothing currently being produced meets all those criteria while still being affordable enough to keep things competitive.  If they did, the Kindle Tablet would be looking at such a screen and would have a significant advantage over every other Tablet PC on sale today.

Naturally something has to give.  The Kindle device is going strong at the moment, but that’s mostly sue to a combination of momentum and strong backing from the platform as a whole.  If the hardware faces too much competition that can match or surpass it, Kindle sales and by extension Kindle eBook sales will suffer.  Amazon has to know this.  As such, I would say that getting your hopes up for an updated Kindle is totally safe.

What can we expect if not a color screen?  Well, a touchscreen is inevitable to match the competition from B&N, Sony, and Kobo, if nothing else.  Given the Kindle Scribe rumors, it wouldn’t be at all shocking if a stylus were included in the design.  Since nobody else is using 3G coverage Amazon could technically let that slip, but the recent ad deal with AT&T would seem to indicate that they value the ability to bring that sort of thing to customers.  Beyond these things, however, it’s anybody’s guess.  Higher resolution screens?  Bluetooth?  Strange magical powers?  All possibilities!

Current speculation places the updated Kindle‘s release in late October, but that information is several weeks old now.  Given the most recent Kindle Tablet developments, and the fact that Amazon is likely to emphasize the new branch of Kindle products heavily for this holiday season, we may not be seeing new Kindles before late November.  More updates will show up here as we dig them up.

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Perhaps the biggest source for speculation regarding the Kindle lately has been the discovery of some domain names secretly registered by Amazon.  Using a hole in Go Daddy’s security, since remedied, interested researchers were able to figure out that they had acquired “kindlescribe.com” and “kindlescribes.com”.  This has, as might be expected, led to quite a few people being fairly sure they know the name and focus of the next Kindle eReader.

At best, I would say this might be half right.  While the Kindle is long overdue for some intuitive and immersion-maintaining method for annotation, I can’t see the addition of a stylus being an important enough addition for Amazon to base an entire generation of their devices on.  It will probably be present as soon as there is a touchscreen to make use of, which I think we can all agree is an inevitability for any new eReader Amazon comes up with at this point, but as a focal point it would just be underwhelming.

What does make sense is a Kindle Scribe(s) service that allows for tighter integration of the Kindle and Kindle Tablet.  One of the biggest problems that the company faces with their entry into the tablet market is that of avoiding cannibalizing their own eReader sales while still maintaining strong competitive advantages.  If the only way to either access or produce hand-written noted in eBooks turns out to be via the Kindle line of devices, not only does value go up compared to the competition in both categories, but the fact that your notes can be shared between the two would encourage dual ownership for a number of applications.  If for no other reason than that a stylus will be equally useful with either new device, there’s no reason to expect a Kindle Scribe eReader.

This isn’t the first time we have heard about potential naming schemes for new Kindle incarnations, of course.  The same source also discovered “kindleair.com” and “kindlewave.com” several months ago, which led to speculation of an earth, wind, and water theme for the next big Amazon device roll out.  For all we know, those will have some applicable meaning when release day comes around too.

While none of this is set in stone and nobody outside of Amazon can really say for sure what is going to come along in the next generation of Kindles, we do know that it’s coming.  Speculation about release dates has been growing, rumors are spreading, and Amazon is selling off refurbished Kindle models for as little as $99 everywhere they can think of to clear stock before the new device is ready to go.  It’s only a matter of time now.

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The origin of the whole ruckus seems to have been an article about the Pottermore site teaming up with Google Books.  Probably just a matter of hopeful thinking on Google fans, I would imagine.  The post mentions efforts being made to integrate Pottermore and Google Books, including an agreement wherein Google Checkout is the preferred third party payment platform for the new site.  The phrasing is very positive for Google, which is to be expected on the official Google Books blog.  The only definite claims we have, however, are that there will be sufficient integration to allow buyers to push their new Harry Potter books out into your Google Books “library in the cloud” and that Google Checkout will be available.  No exclusivity is implied, whether it be in terms of eBook platform, payment platform, or anything else.

One of the more interesting spinoffs from that somewhat overblown topic is the idea that the Harry Potter series will in some way be used to force Amazon into adding EPUB compatibility for the Kindle line.  While there has been no official word on this, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that there’s not a chance it will happen.  For one, Rowling is maintaining complete control over her products and has not, to the best of my knowledge, ever expressed a strong inclination to advocate for her favorite file format.  Why would she?  Also, it would make little sense to alienate Amazon in any way give that they currently have the largest customer base in the eReading world.  Given that the Kindle can already read DRM-free MobiPocket eBooks, there is no reason that I can think of for the Pottermore site to try to force the EPUB issue.  What business would want to lose money by failing to spend a minute or less converting a file from one format to another?

When October rolls around, I would anticipate that it will be as easy for a Kindle user to get their new Harry Potter stuff as it will be for anybody else, even if Amazon is being fairly quiet about their integration efforts right now.  The new eBooks should be available in every format still used today, and quite possibly some truly obsolete ones.  Since there will be no DRM included in the files, even if your favorite is not represented there are always programs like Calibre.  Let’s face it, though, unless you are still using the Sony BBeB out of personal preference or something, there is little chance of being overlooked.  The Pottermore site will be taking care of the fans.

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While at a glance the Kindle Touch, or whatever Amazon chooses to call it, seems to be a reaction to the incredibly popular new Nook Simple Touch, the timing makes that less of an issue.  October is also the anticipated release month for the first piece in the new Kindle Tablet line.  Many people have been wondering if this meant the death of the Kindle, either by way of abandonment in favor of the newer product, or simply by eroding the existing customer base by offering an affordable alternative that does more than can be handled by existing eReaders.  The latter is far-fetched, since customers have shown a distinct appreciation for dedicated reading devices so far and seem more inclined toward dual-ownership rather than abandonment of the Kindle in favor of any tablet.  The former was a concern, but by launching the new Kindles at the same time as the Kindle Tablet, Amazon has the opportunity to provide what I assume will be their first sub-$100 eReader, as well as a new more advanced model, and thereby reaffirm their commitment to providing a dedicated reading experience for their Kindle customers.

Assuming that Amazon can be counted on to take advantage of the time remaining before the release to address any remaining shortcomings in their design as compared to the competition, such as the Nook’s current superiority in terms of speed boosts and social networking integration, these new Kindles can’t really help but make a splash.  The move at least partially away from the physical keyboard will even leave open the potential for true localization of the newer model without retooling the hardware for every country they decide to open a Kindle Store in.  The fact that many expect the Kindle Tablet to come with a customized front end for the Amazon.com site that is geared toward optimized tablet shopping will almost certainly bode well for the new Kindle as well, should it prove true.

It isn’t going to be the color E Ink eReader that many people were, I think, hoping for.  It would just be too much of a shock to see the price of the Kindle’s newest model jump to accommodate the higher production costs of something like that.  That does not mean that the Kindle Tablet won’t pick up the ball as far as that demand is concerned, though.  Time will tell what needs Amazon has chosen to prioritize, but it is heartening to see that they won’t be letting eReading become a minor aspect of their bigger media distribution effort.

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The Probable

• Reports from various sources say that at least one Kindle Tablet, almost certainly the first of a series, will be released before the end of the year.  Possibly as early as October.
• The Kindle Tablet will not compete with the Kindle, or result in its being discontinued.
• The new Tablet PC will be running some variation of Google’s Android 3.0 or later, with seamless integration into Amazon’s Android App Store.
• The focus will be on media consumption, with streaming video being strongly emphasized
• The first Kindle Tablet will likely have a 9″ screen.
• Prices on any and all Tablet PC offerings from Amazon are expected to undercut iPad 2 prices.
• The initial stock order is sufficiently large that selling out should not be a problem.
• There will be no camera.
• An improved mobile shopping experience will be a major issue for Amazon’s new device.

The Possible

• Some sources have claimed that two Kindle Tablet models will be available at launch, codenamed ‘Coyote’ and ‘Hollywood’.  The former would be a low powered, but affordable option with either a 7″ or 9″ screen.  The latter would feature more impressive hardware and a 10+” screen.
• In order to fill as many niches as possible, Amazon plans to offer pocket-sized devices similar to the iPod Touch eventually, and maybe even a Kindle Phone.
• The Kindle Tablet could be priced at or below cost in order to bolster sales, with any deficiencies made up through advertising space on the Tablets themselves.
• Amazon may have some deals in the works with AT&T to provide 3G connections to the Tablets.
• It is hoped that the displays for the Kindle Tablet line will take advantage of newer, more power conserving technology, based on Amazon’s criticisms of LCD shortcomings in previous ad campaigns.

A fair amount to go on so far, especially since Amazon has declined to even officially confirm the existence of the new device.  The only things we can be completely sure of are that Amazon has a Tablet PC in the works, they are anticipating strong sales based on manufacturer information, and it is unlikely that the Nook Color is the intended competition.  Amazon seems to have their sights set a little higher than Barnes & Noble’s almost unintentionally impressive budget Tablet.

Given that some rumors place the announcement and release as early as August, and that almost all of the more well sourced ones mention 3rd quarter 2011, it is certain that we’ll know more definite details soon.  In the meantime, it might be a good time to hold off on impulsively buying the next cool looking Tablet on the market.  Amazon has done a pretty good job of proving they know what they’re doing via the Kindle.  It should be worth the wait to see how they hold up on their next big hardware push.

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At the moment there are a few ways to get video to your computer.  You can go with Netflix and stream all the movies you want, but really the selection is fairly limited and the quality has a tendency to be questionable at times.  Youtube is generally the cheapest and most widely supported option, but it isn’t usually the best way to find what you want to watch.  Apple will sell you movies, but they seem comparatively overpriced.  Even Cable companies will typically provide On-Demand video for subscribers, but these tend to be the worst of the bunch in any number of ways.  In spite of there being a number of avenues, however, nobody has really come up with an impressive option.  The best choice so far is probably Netflix, but if Amazon can come up with a decent streaming/downloading service selection then it shouldn’t be terribly hard for them to make it work. The Amazon Instant Video Store seems to be a push in that direction and might well be paving the way for the new Kindle Tablet.

The “Hollywood” version of the Kindle Tablet will supposedly be featuring the quad-core NVidia Tegra 3 .  This would make it faster than any other tablet on the market today by a fair margin while at the same time not sacrificing battery life at quite the extreme that a quad-core processor in a tablet would imply.  It would also support a display resolution of up to 1920 x 1200, which is a noticeable step up from the iPad’s 1024 x 768 and would allow for HD quality movie viewing.

While the available information would therefore seem to support the idea of a movie viewing Kindle equivalent, the Kindle Tablet’s other specs remain a big factor.  Without knowing what will be available in terms of storage, connectivity, and display technology it is fairly difficult to figure out exactly what is going on.  Storage may be a moot point, given Amazon’s cloud-based music service and the ability to stream movies, but it would make more sense to allow for full downloads to ensure maximum performance and battery life.  Connectivity would have a lot to do with quality concerns as well, of course.  The display is really the big point.  Since Amazon has basically built an entire campaign based on the shortcomings of the iPad’s LCD display compared to that of the Kindle, we have to assume that they have something else in mind for the Kindle Tablet. Which way they go on that point may well be the most interesting bit of information in the end.

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The first of the new Kindle Tablet devices is code-named “Coyote”.  This tablet, seemingly the introductory model, will run on NVidia’s Tegra 2 processor.  Not an unusual choice in the world of Android phones and tablets at the moment, but it seems to do the job fairly well.  While it won’t make the Coyote stand out particularly, there’s nothing to be particularly disappointed by.

The more impressive model is code-named “Hollywood”.  The Hollywood model will be making use of NVidia’s upcoming T30 “Kal-El” quad-core processor.  It will likely come as little surprise to most of you that the quad-core model is likely to be ridiculously fast by comparison.  NVidia has reported that the new processor will be approximately 500% the speed of the Tegra 2.

The only obvious comparison that you can draw at this point in the Tablet PC field is to the iPad.  None of the others have managed to make a particularly impressive splash by comparison.  Given what we know at this point, it would seem that Amazon has opted out of carving themselves off a chunk of the market to call their own and is jumping straight into contesting Apple’s dominance.

Consider what it was that gave Apple the edge in all this.  Yes, they came out with a very affordable tablet and they beat everybody else out.  The biggest factor, though, was their being poised to take advantage of every stage of tablet usage.  You don’t just buy your iPad from Apple, you also need apps if you want to do anything.  In many cases, you can’t even get by with just the app.  You need media to run with the app.  Apple makes a profit off of hardware, software, and media because they get a cut from every single step.  Amazon is now in a position to do the same.  They have themselves some new hardware, an app store, every sort of media you can think of, and an already strong following that while not as extensive as the iPhone owner community was at the launch of the iPad, is still impressive. It is obvious that the first people likely to be successfully targeted for the new device are the many satisfied customers of the Kindle since they have some experience with the company’s hardware already.

As with the Kindle, it is going to take a truly impressive product and an extensive support system for Amazon to hope to come out on top here.  The thing is, they seem like they have that.  Is Amazon going to come out with an iPad killer?  Of course not.  They are likely going to create the first meaningful rivalry that the tablet world has seen so far, though.  It is to be hoped that the Kindle vs iPad competition will do as much for tablets as the Kindle vs Nook has managed so far for eReaders.

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Whether one or both comes to be is up in the air yet.  It makes a lot of sense to assume that something along these lines is coming, though.  Amazon already has a marketplace filled with apps that are made for use on an Android smartphone. Of course many of them will scale up just fine to a larger screen for the Kindle Tablet, but they’ll be best represented on the 4″ screen they were made for.  On top of this, the ability to offer a particularly cheap device as part of the new product line will help to ensure a positive reception.

The question of whether or not it will be a real cell phone or simply something to run apps on is still rather hard to speculate on.  Amazon has some existing connections to the world of cellular providers, but mainly due to the need entailed by the Kindle 3G.  To launch themselves into the cell phone market at the same time as releasing their first tablet PC would seem like a great way to complicate things more than they need to be.  This doesn’t necessarily rule it out, of course, since consumers would definitely welcome an affordable, functional iPhone alternative at this point, especially if it uses an LCD alternative that allows for extended battery life as some have considered likely for the entire Kindle Tablet line. Even if there is no specific function as a phone, per se, I can’t imagine that Amazon would miss the opportunity to make them into functional communication devices by allowing things like Google Voice or Skype to run through them.  Since it is pretty much inevitable that the Kindle Tablets will have WiFi, as does everything these days, there will always be plenty of options.

So far there is no solid information on the potential release date for anything in this line of devices besides that it is likely to be in the second half of 2011. Given the scheduled announcement by Barnes & Noble of a new entry in the Nook series, however, it would be completely unsurprising if things are being timed for a bit of overshadowing.  There has certainly been a history of competition between the two ever since the Kindle vs Nook rivalry began.  The exchange should be fun, if nothing else.

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Supposedly at this point we should be expecting not just one tablet but a whole family of devices.  There is some question of where Amazon will be drawing the line, but we can expect multiple tablet sizes and possibly a smartphone or iPod Touch-like pocketable device.  This makes a certain amount of sense if you think about the fact that Amazon will be looking to play up the versatility of their app marketplace.  To get the greatest possible diversity of use, it only makes sense to allow the hardware to accommodate a range of different needs.

There was an earlier rumor going around that pushed the idea that Amazon would be going with a specially skinned version of Android 2.3, but that seems to be falling away a bit.  The more recent news indicates that Android 3.0 or later is more likely.  It is even possible, according to the interview in question, that Amazon has been working directly with Google to some extent in order to optimize the experience.

The display type is still quite definitely in question, especially given a recent comment by Bezos that the color E Ink screens are still “not ready for prime-time”.  Even assuming that this isn’t just reticence, however, it does not rule out the use of Mirasol displays or something along the lines of the Pixel Qi display.  Having seen the videos of the upcoming front-lit Mirasol displays that are supposed to be available this fall, I’d say that these are a good contender if there ends up being no further delay in production.

The big question for me personally is whether or not the Kindle tablet will stand out as an open platform.  The big that people are having to the iPad, increasingly since the Apple decision to basically exclude everybody else from making a profit on eBooks by distributing to their devices, is the closed environment and arbitrary enforcement of rules.  Amazon is not perfect in this regard.  Books have been pulled from the Kindle store before without warning.  It would be nice to see this develop as a fairly open marketplace, however.  Competition is good for everybody.

To head off certain concerns, let me say ahead of time that there is no indication that this will be a replacement of the Kindle eReader. In addition to simply being a proven consistent source of income for Amazon, the Bezos interview I mentioned earlier also included the line “We will always be very mindful that we will want a dedicated reading device.”  This is just an expansion of the hardware presence that they’ve been doing well in developing.

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Beginning on Sunday, March 6th, customers at AT&T owned stores nation-wide should be seeing something new on the shelves.  The Kindle 3G, yes only the $189 model at this point since it is a cellular store, will be on display and available for customers wanting to grab on the spot or compare side by side with something like the iPad.  Heck, it’ll probably even be on the same wall for some easy reference.

The advantage of having the Kindle available to customers through these stores is clear.  Not terribly impressive at this point, but clear.  This makes one more place for people wanting to test drive a Kindle to stop in at.  That’s all.  I suppose it might be convenient for some people, but other than that there are no real incentives for people shopping at AT&T.

Wow.  That was short.  Ok, guess we have room for more news!

Free Kindles in Our Future?

There’s been talk lately about the possibility of free Kindle devices coming to us as early as November of this year.  Now, take this with a grain of salt, but I wouldn’t entirely discount it.  The rumor stems from an examination of the price drops that the Kindle has experienced since it first came on the market.  Apparently they’ve been pretty steadily linear so far.  So much so that it looks as if we can predict precisely when the price will hit zero.  When this was mentioned to Jeff Bezos last year, he is reported to have said “Oh, you noticed that!” with a smile and left it at that.

Recent speculation has involved a couple different ways that such a free Kindle could manifest.  While some people think it could end up being incentive in some promotion (i.e. Buy 30 eBooks, get your Kindle Free!), I consider the most likely scenario to be the Amazon Prime option.  While there are already a number of benefits to being a Prime member including free 2-day shipping on everything and, more recently, free streaming movies, wouldn’t it be that much more tempting to holdout customers if they got a free Kindle in the deal?

This would go that one step further toward making the Kindle, and Amazon in general, the first stop for any consumer purchase.  I know, having had a Prime membership for a while now, that I’m willing to choose Amazon over other retailers for no other reason than the quick shipping on most things already.  If they beef up their movie selection, I can see it replacing my Netflix account too.

Now, I know that I’m not one to talk, having already expressed my own eReader preferences, but if they sent a Kindle to my house even back when I was fully in the Nook camp and I didn’t have to pay a thing for it, the convenience might well have been enough to win me over.  Maybe that’s what the plan is?  An insidious plot to gain our business by giving good value for the money would be novel, I suppose!

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Now, will this be the much anticipated Kindle 3?  No idea.  The timing seems right in a lot of ways, but this could just as easily be a minor cosmetic update in the interests of giving Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) a further edge in the eBook market.  Either way, August should be a good month for fans of the device as we can be fairly sure to see something new.  Personally, all I really care about is the new screen.  That Graphite DX model is very nice to read on.

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The unexpected feature that is, at present, merely a well-substantiated rumor, is that the new Kindle will finally be offering up the option of WiFi connectivity either in parallel with or exclusive of the existing 3G connection.  This opens up at least the possibility of having multiple pricing options depending on user requirements, since there is some evidence that plans have been made for a 3G-free model.  It also adds in a much-needed interface option for those who enjoy the Kindle device but do not have regular 3G access in their homes.  Coverage is growing all over the place, but it’s simply not quite everywhere just yet.  Even for those among us who do have the coverage, the speed boost offered by such an option will be a more than welcome advantage when it comes to web browsing and downloading.  This is to say nothing about the potential effect on price that going without 3G coverage might entail.  August is likely to be a fun month.

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Although sales of readers are expected to double this year, from the 4 million sold in 2009, that is still a mere fraction of the book-buying market. A lower-priced reader is one way to tap a larger chunk of the market. The ticket price of readers has been a barrier to wider consumer distribution.

According to Freescale officials, the new chip eliminates features that aren’t used in e readers while adding the ability to better control the unique E ink display technology. Currently the displays are controlled by separate chips. Freescale’s faster processor is controlled by a single chip, and will reduce page turning time from two seconds to less than a half second.

Apple’s iPad, set for release later this month, uses the company’s own chip and will not benefit from Freescale’s improved technology. With price tag as high as $699, news of price cutting by its competitors couldn’t come at a worse time. Price conscious consumers, already suffering from sticker shock on the iPad, may wait for lower priced Sony or Amazon readers. And the six-month release hits just in time for Christmas gift giving.

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Advertising

Amazon has applied for two patents: On-Demand Generating E-Book Content With Advertising and Incorporating Advertising In On-Demand Generated Content.  Essentially, the patents are for adding content-generated ads to Kindle products, in a manner similar to Google’s AdSense program.

The patents specify a number of hypothetical advertising practices that seem like many readers’ worst fears.  One example:  “If a restaurant is described on page 12… [then] page 11 or page 13, may include advertisements about restaurants, wine, food, etc., which are related to restaurants and dining.”   In addition to full page ads, the patents also describe adding ads to the margins of a book and fitting in extra ads if the book has larger margins.

It’s interesting to imagine what long-term goals of Amazon this may reveal.  Since the Kindle and the books read on it are already purchased up front, I can’t imagine very many consumers would be happy about ads.  It seems unlikely that ads will be added anytime soon, as Amazon is already getting bad press for this and wouldn’t want to lose its customer base.

One possibility, actually mentioned in the first patent, is for Amazon to create some sort of two tiered bookstore in the future.  In addition to the current, ad-free books, Amazon could start offering discounted, or even free books that rely on advertising revenue.  Another thing to consider is the use in newspapers and periodicals.  Papers are already primarily ad-supported anyway; Amazon could be hoping to license their ad service as news makes the transition away from traditional print media.  Any paper being published to an eReader format could mostly shop between Amazon,  Google, and others to choose an advertising provider.

Another possibility is that these patents are defensive move meant to keep Google with their successful ad-based revenue model out of digital books while Amazon itself has no immediate intention of putting ads into books.

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Jeff Bezos With Kindle DX (by TimYang.Net)

Amazon Chief Executive, Jeff Bezos, has made clear the company’s intention to bring the Kindle’s eBook store to more devices.  Apparently, Amazon views the Kindle and the bookstore as two separate ventures, and is not afraid to let competitors access the same library that the Kindle does.

Currently, the only non-kindle device with access to the book store is the iPhone, through the Kindle for iPhone app.  I would guess that some of the new devices getting Kindle support would have to be the iPhone’s competitors, most likely Palm, Blackberry, or Windows Mobile.

But the most strategic platform to cover would have to be Android.  If Amazon hopes to compete with Google’s upcoming bookstore, it would make sense to first push their own books onto Google’s mobile OS.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like Amazon has any current plans to share their eBook format with everybody.  I’m guessing this will at some point be a necessity, however, as eReaders and competing bookstores become more prominent.  Sure, extra support for mobile devices will help the Amazon bookstore, but it won’t affect the buying habits of a Sony eReader user.  Eventually, Amazon will need to open their bookstore to all eReaders unless it wants to lose business to someone like Google.

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Kindle DX WiFi

Kindle DX was taken apart by RapidRepair.com recently. Kindle Zen took a closer look at these photos and suggested that Kindle DX’s PCB is wired for WiFi chipset and antennae. It’s quite possible that Amazon would sell WiFi Kindles in countries where it will not be able to reach an agreement with wireless operators. In the past Jesse Vincent speculated about possibility of 9.7″ Kindle based on Kindle source code and was right.

I wouldn’t hold my breath any time soon about WiFi in US version of Kindle because that would be a completely new device and Amazon has already released two during last three months. This caused some anger among Kindle 2 users who felt that their devices almost immediately became outdated when Kindle DX was released.

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Kindle Air

Taken from www.kindleair.com. According to registrar data this interesting domain just popped into existence on May 20th, 2009.

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from rcS.d/S05video_primary_init:

_PANEL_SIZE_6_0_INCH=6
_PANEL_SIZE_9_7_INCH=9

Does this mean that folks in lab126 are playing around with larger screens for next generation Kindle 3? Could be… There are some rumours circulating the web about next generation Amazon Kindle possibly being available this fall (holiday season 2009).

I promise to collect more rumors about Kindle 3, verify them, crosscheck and post a summary here soon enough.

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